CS:GO Case Odds: Chances of Getting Valuable Skins

Case Odds

Are you interested in giving CS:GO cases a go? Numerous players dream about getting the most valuable skins from these in-game containers. If you think about purchasing them, you probably wonder whether they are worth it and what the CS:GO case odds are. Here’s what you should know. 

CS:GO has been around for a while, and there are still plenty of reasons why players find it interesting. Besides exciting gameplay, the fans of this game are interested in cases — loot boxes that contain skins of different rarity levels. You may get such cases as rewards when you play, or you can buy them. The majority of players use the Steam marketplace to purchase them. 

At the moment, CS:GO has 38 cases, and all of them fall into one of three categories — Discontinued, Rare, or Prime. Discontinued cases no longer drop in the actual game but can still be purchased in the game market. Those who boast Prime Status can randomly get Prime cases during the game, but all players have an opportunity to buy them. The cases differ in cost, depending  on how rare a certain case is. 

If you're looking to enhance your gaming experience, understanding how to get cases in CS:GO can be a real game-changer. Check out this comprehensive guide for all the necessary details.

Now, let’s look at how the case odds in CS:GO relate to what weapon skins you can get from them. 

What Are the Odds for CS:GO Cases?

Back in 2017, Valve released the official information on the CS:GO case chances, so everyone can now see exactly what they can expect when they buy such cases. 

All the weapon skins in the game differ in their rarity levels. There are five main grades of skins that you can get from cases: Navy Blue, Purple, Pink, Red, and Gold. Naturally, the more valuable a certain skin is, the less likely you are to get it from a container. To give you precise percentages, we will review the odds of getting knives, as it is the weapon every player wants to modify (the rates will be similar for other types of weapon). Here are the detailed CS:GO case opening odds provided by the developers:


Success rate

Navy Blue (Mil-Spec)


Purple (Restricted) 


Pink (Classified) 


Red (Covert) 


Gold (Special item)


The list doesn’t include White and Baby Blue options, which are the least rare ones, and they are not available to win from CS:GO cases (they drop after games). 

It is obvious from these success rate percentages that you truly need a lot of luck to get exciting skins. The Red and Gold ones are the most sought-after, but the likelihood of getting them is so low that you may have to open dozens, if not hundreds, of cases to get the desired weapon skin. 

It is also important to mention that players can get StatTrack skins from cases. They are designed to register kills made with a particular weapon. The chances of getting such skins are ten times lower compared to the standard types. Considering the above, most players should view opening cases as entertaining rather than a way to get serious profit. 

If you're interested in the high-end of the in-game economy, be sure to check out our list of the most expensive CS:GO knives.


The randomness and unpredictability of opening cases in the game make the process so exhilarating. It can be compared to playing a lottery — while the chances of becoming a jackpot winner are quite low, this possibility makes people come back.

Despite how fun it is to open a CS:GO container and see what it has to offer, if you are searching for a particular skin, purchasing one case after another is not the best strategy — the statistics are not on your side. You will end up overpaying significantly and will likely end up with a range of skins you already own or have zero interest in. The best solution for this is to buy skins directly from the marketplace without worrying about the probability of winning in CS:GO cases. 

For those who are interested in expanding their collection, discovering the best cases to open in CS:GO can significantly increase your chances of obtaining rare items.


The case chances in CS:GO depend on the rarity of the skins. If you want to get the most valuable knife or glove skins from cases, you shouldn’t get your hopes up too high. The reason is that being the lucky one to get the most impressive skins is less than one percent. 

Most players interested in the CS:GO chances of case-items drop are looking forward to valuable skins of the Gold rarity. The reality is that you are either very fortunate or have to open a huge number of cases to get them. The odds of getting skin that belong to the Gold category is just 0.26%. 

Navy Blue odds refer to mil-spec skins, and they are the least rare category of skins that you can get from a case purchased in CS:GO. Compared to the Gold percentage, your chances of getting high-grade or mil-spec skins are fairly decent — 79.92%.

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