CS2 Weekly Drops Chances: What CS2 Skins Will Drop

Weekly drops have changed significantly since the old CS:GO days, and if you haven’t kept up with CS2’s newer systems, it’s easy to get confused. Instead of random post-match rewards, the game now uses a weekly care package system that provides players with a predictable, free way to earn skins, cases, and various other items.

At first glance, this system looks simple. However, there are uncertain rules, limitations, and hidden details that matter if you want to understand your real CS2 weekly drops chances of getting something valuable. For example, not every item type can drop; some rewards are significantly rarer than others; and certain drops can reach extremely high market value. Because of this, the weekly care package can sometimes be far more rewarding than players expect.

Today, we will break down how Weekly Drops work, which items are available, and the odds of getting valuable rewards.

How Weekly Drops Work in CS2

Before we get into the details, let’s take a closer look at how the current drop system actually functions in Counter-Strike 2.

Weekly Care Package System Explained

CS2’s drop system is different from CS:GO’s random post-match rewards. The current system, known as the Weekly Care Package, grants every eligible player one Care Package per week, provided they earn enough XP to complete the progress bar.

Once you earn sufficient XP, the game presents a screen with four reward options. These may include weapon skins from the CS2 active drop pool, cases, sprays, or other low-tier items. You can select two out of the four  offered items each week, with the available drops resetting every Wednesday.

Most of the time, players receive inexpensive skins or a case worth around $1–2. However, there are moments when the Care Package surprises players with genuinely valuable drops. Overall, the transition from fully random drops to a choice-based system is a positive change, making rewards more predictable and player-controlled.

How to Unlock Weekly Drops

The developers restrict newly created accounts from participating in the CS2 weekly drops to prevent uncontrolled package farming, similar to what happened during the CS:GO era. To access weekly Care Packages, players must have Prime Status enabled and reach Private Rank 2. Only after meeting these requirements will they be permanently included in the weekly drop cycle.

When You Become Eligible for a Drop

Making your account eligible only grants access to the feature, not the weekly drops themselves. To receive drops, you must actively play and fill your XP bar every week. You need 5,000 XP to level up. XP can be earned by playing any official mode that contributes to profile XP, including Premier, Competitive, Casual, Wingman, Deathmatch, Arms Race, and others. Once your weekly XP bar is completed, the Care Package becomes available in the Store tab of the game’s main menu.

Please note that matches on third-party platforms such as FACEIT do not contribute to your profile XP.

How to Claim Your Weekly Drop

When your XP bar fills up and you reach the next level, the Care Package screen will appear automatically unless you exit the game immediately after the match ends. You will see four items to choose from, but you can only select two. To claim your drops, left-click the items you want to mark them, then confirm your selection. The chosen items will appear in your Steam inventory immediately after confirmation.

If the game crashes or you close it before claiming your Care Package, it won’t be lost. Simply return to CS2 at any time, go to the Store tab in the main menu, and claim your drops.

What Can You Get From Weekly Drops In CS2

As we mentioned above, you will always have four options to choose from. These can include weapon skins, cases, graffiti sprays, and other miscellaneous items. Let’s break these categories down one by one.

Weapon Skins

Weekly rewards in CS2 include weapon skins from the current active drop collections. These are the same curated collections players have been receiving since the system was first introduced, such as 2018 Inferno, 2018 Nuke, Dust 2, Safehouse, Ascent, Boreal, and Radiant. The most common rarity is Consumer Grade, followed by Industrial Grade. Mil-Spec, Restricted, Classified, and Covert skins can also drop, but their chances are very low.

Cases

One of the four items in every Weekly Care Package will always be a case. These are usually the most valuable drops players can receive this way. It's also the only way to obtain a knife from weekly drops, as knives are not available directly otherwise. However, the CS2 knife chance from the case remains extremely low.

Most of the time, you will receive a case from the current active case pool, which includes:

1. Kilowatt Case;
2. Revolution Case;
3. Recoil Case;
4. Dreams & Nightmares Case;
5. Fracture Case;
6. Sealed Genesis Terminal Case.

There is also a small chance to receive a rare legacy case from older collections. Some of these are among the best cases to open in CS2, with prices exceeding $50:

1. CS20 Case;
2. CS:GO Weapon Case;
3. Operation Bravo Case;
4. Prisma Case;
5. Danger Zone Case;
6. Horizon Case;
7. Gamma Case;
8. Gamma 2 Case;
9. Spectrum Case;
10. Spectrum 2 Case;
11. Operation Wildfire Case;
12. Operation Vanguard Weapon Case;
13. Operation Breakout Weapon Case;
14. Operation Hydra Case;
15. Glove Case;
16. Operation Phoenix Weapon Case;
17. Prisma 2 Case;
18. Clutch Case;
19. Chroma Case;
20. Chroma 2 Case;
21. Chroma 3 Case;
22. Revolver Case;
23. Shadow Case;
24. Falchion Case;
25. Huntsman Weapon Case;
26. Winter Offensive Weapon Case.

Graffiti (Sprays)

Graffiti sprays are another common type in weekly drops. They are consumable items that usually have low market value. While it is technically possible to receive a spray worth a decent amount, the odds of it are extremely low. As a result, most players typically choose to skip graffiti in favor of other rewards.

That said, if you do decide to pick graffiti, it’s worth learning how to spray graffiti in CS2. Some creative use-cases may surprise you and can actually improve your chances of winning.

Sticker Capsules

Even though sticker capsules don’t have a 100% drop chance, they usually don’t generate significant profit, as their value depends heavily on the capsule series. However, before skipping them outright, it’s worth checking what’s inside. Most sticker capsules do not require a key to open, and some stickers you can get from them may be worth more than cases, skins, or even the capsules themselves.

Keychain Separators (Charm Detachment Packs)

A keychain separator is the final type of item that can appear in weekly Care Packages and arguably the least useful one. It's neither a skin nor a container, but simply an inventory tool used to detach charms from weapon skins. It offers almost no value, so it’s best to skip it in favor of virtually any other option.

Explore the CS2 Inventory Value Checker now and turn your assets into opportunities.

What You Can’t Get from Weekly Drops

Before moving on, let’s quickly clarify what cannot appear in weekly Care Packages. Weekly drops do not include souvenir skins, case-exclusive skins, music kits, or operation-exclusive cosmetics, including any agent skins, knives, or gloves. Once again, weekly Care Packages only pull items from active map collections. Souvenir skins come from event drops, while case-exclusive skins require opening cases. This strict limitation keeps the weekly drop system predictable and fair.

Weekly Drop CS2 Chances

With all the basics covered, let’s take a closer look at weekly drop chances in CS2.

How CS2 Determines What You’ll Get

CS2 weekly rewards are drawn from several internal pools: the weapon pool, the case pool, the graffiti pool, and the sticker capsule pool. As for legacy skins, legacy cases, and other miscellaneous items, there is no official information available. When you level up your weekly XP rank, the game generates a random Care Package containing four items. In most cases, this includes one active-drop case, one low-tier skin, and one or two filler items such as graffiti or sticker capsules.

Drop Rates by Item Type

The CS2 weekly drop pool by item type is something that needs to be discussed carefully. Valve does not publish official drop rates, so everything presented in this section is based on assumptions and estimates drawn from long-term community experience. However, players have been tracking and discussing these numbers ever since the introduction of weekly Care Packages were introduced, so the figures below should be fairly close to reality. Without further ado, here are the commonly accepted drop percentages:

Weapon Skins (from Map Collections):

1. Consumer Grade: ~65%;
2. Industrial Grade: ~25%;
3. Mil-Spec: ~8%;
4. Restricted: ~1%;
5. Classified: ~0.2%.

Cases:

1. ~99% chance the case comes from the current Active Drop Pool;
2. ~1% chance to receive a “legacy” or discontinued case.

Graffiti Sprays:

1. Common graffiti has an almost 100% appearance rate;
2. Graffiti containers can appear, but at extremely low odds (~1%).

Sticker Capsules

1. This drop is currently rare and is considered a “filler” item.

It's also a good idea to check the CS2 rarity list to better understand the potential value of items you receive from weekly drops.

Factors that Influence Weekly Drops CS2 Chances

Now, let’s quickly go through the factors that influence CS2 weekly drop rates and whether there is a way to increase them. To receive a weekly Care Package, you need:

1. Prime status.
2. At least Private Rank 2 on your account.
3. Enough weekly XP to level up.

Other than these requirements, there are no confirmed ways to improve your CS2 weekly drop chances. Factors such as kills, MVPs, wins, score, or time played only affect how quickly you level up and unlock your weekly package. There is also no evidence of hidden modifiers, such as account age, Prime activation date, trust factor, or current or previous inventory value, influencing drops. As a result, there is no reliable way to increase your chances of receiving better items. The system is intentionally designed to prevent players from manipulating probabilities.

Conclusion

The CS2 Prime weekly rewards system is far from perfect, but compared to CS:GO’s fully random drops, it offers a more predictable experience. Given the current state of the game, this may be one of the few systems helping maintain player engagement. Players know when and how they can obtain a package, understand what types of items can appear, and are given a choice rather than relying entirely on luck.

While the usual CS2 weekly care package drop pool will include low-tier skins, cheap graffiti, or basic cases, there is always a small chance of receiving something genuinely valuable. As long as you meet the eligibility requirements and complete your weekly XP bar, you are guaranteed a reward every week. Whether it’s a filler item or a surprise high-value case, CS2’s weekly drops provide a small but steady stream of rewards without relying solely on randomness.

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